JOE ALEXANDER " DARE TO CHANGE "

Vital people have faith and they have hope. They feel they can manage their destiny and go about it enthusiastically. They exercise their minds as well as their bodies. When anxiety creeps in it is short-lived. What is meaningful and important is a personal decision and a sign of inner direction, whether by instinct or deliberate design, potent people choose their life directions and get on with the process of enthusiastic living. They have succeeded in facing down their inner saboteurs and purging themselves of the negatives in their belief systems.

SUCCESSFUL COMMODITY SPECULATION

SUCCESSFUL COMMODITY SPECULATION

by Peter Brandt

I believe that it takes a minimum of 3 to 5 years for a person to learn enough about speculative markets and the speculative process to become a successful trader. I also believe that every successful trader has his or her unique approach to trading. I have not know two successful traders that operate in the same exact fashion. each has found a special niche that seems to fit his personality. the major problem is that the vast majority of individuals (80-90%) either burn out their pocketbooks or their emotional will to continue trading before they figure out the rules of the game. this a cold and harsh reality, but a reality, but a reality it is.

FORMULA FOR SUCCESS

There are six components of a successful trading approach:

1) A method for identifying trades. it could be based on classical charting, moving averages, retracements, elliot wave, gann, seasonals, cycles, etc.etc. but one must have a methodical way to look at and study price. in my own trading I can look at a chart and immediately say " there is a trade here" or " there isn't a trade here" or there may be a trade here, but the market has to do such and such."

2) A method of entry . it is not enough to have a market opinion. one must also have a systematic way to enter a trade.

3) A method of establishing an initial protective stop level.

4) A method for taking profits and/or moving protective stops.

5) Overall money management rules. these include such things as % of capital risked per trade, treatment of highly correlated markets, trading into major reports, etc.

6) Patience and discipline. once all of the above elements are established, then the trader must have the patience to wait for a qualifying trade and the discipline to execute a trading plan after 6 or 8 losing trades. but it has to be done. it is difficult to ride a winner after 6 or 8 losing trades, but this also has to be done.

Where You Can Find KVE

KVE

Objectivity

                                  Objectivity

·                     you feel no pressure to do anything

·                     you have no feeling of fear

·                     you feel no sense of rejection

·                     there is no right or wrong

·                     you recognize that this is what the market is telling me this is what i do

·                     you can observe the market from the perspective as if you were not in a position, even when you are

·                     you are not focused on money but on the structure of the market

W.D. GANN *** 28 VALUABLE RULES ***

W.D. GANN  *** 28 VALUABLE RULES ***

1) AMOUNT OF CAPITAL TO USE- DIVIDE CAPITAL INTO 10 EQUAL PARTS- NEVER RISK MORE THAN 1/1O

2) USE STOP-LOSS ORDERS

3) NEVER OVERTRADE

4) NEVER LET A PROFIT RUN INTO A LOSS. AFTER YOU HAVE PROFIT PUT STOP SO THAT YOU WILL HAVE NO LOSS OF CAPITAL

5) DO NOT BUCK THE TREND NEVER BUY OR SELL IF YOU ARE NOT SURE OF TREND

6) WHEN IN DOUBT , GET OUT, AND DONT GET IN WHEN IN DOUBT

7) TRADE ONLY IN ACTIVE MARKETS

8) EQUAL DISTRIBUTION OF RISK

9) NEVER LIMIT YOUR ORDERS OR FIX BUYING OR SELLING PRICE TRADE AT THE MARKET

10) DO NOT CLOSE YOUR TRADES WITHOUT A GOOD REASON. FOLLOW UP WITH A STOP-LOSS ORDER TO PROTECT YOUR PROFITS

11) ACCUMULATE A SURPLUS . AFTER YOU HAVE MADE A SERIES OF SUCCESSFUL TRADES. PUT SOME MONEY INTO A SURPLUS ACCOUNT TO BE USED ONLY IN EMERGENCY OR IN A TIME OF PANIC

12) NEVER BUY OR SELL TO GET A SCALPING PROFIT

13) NEVER AVERAGE A LOSS

14) NEVER GET OUT OF THE MARKET JUST BECAUSE YOU HAVE LOST PATIENCE OR GET INTO THE MARKET BECAUSE YOU ARE ANXIOUS FROM WAITING

15) AVOID GETTING IN AND OUT OF THE MARKET TOO OFTEN

16) NEVER CANCEL A STOP-LOSS ORDER AFTER YOU HAVE PLACED IT AT THE TIME YOU MAKE A TRADE

17) AVOID TAKING SMALL PROFITS AND BIG LOSSES

18) BE JUST AS WILLING TO SELL SHORT AS YOU ARE TO BUY

19) NEVER BUY JUST BECAUSE THE PRICE IS TOO LOW OR SELL IF IT IS TOO HIGH

20) BE CAREFUL ABOUT PYRAMIDING AT THE WRONG TIME. WAIT UNTIL THE COMMODITY IS VERY ACTIVE AND HAS CROSSED RESISTANCE LEVELS BEFORE BUYING MORE , AND ONLY IF IT HAS BROKEN OUT OF A ZONE OF DISTRIBUTION TO SELL

21) SELECT THE COMMODITIES THAT SHOW STRONG UPTREND TO PYRAMID ON THE BUYING SIDE AND THE ONES THAT SHOW DEFINITE

DOWNTREND TO SELL SHORT

22) NEVER HEDGE

23) NEVER CHANGE YOUR POSITION IN THE MARKET WITHOUT A GOOD REASON - HAVE A GOOD REASON TO PUT ON A TRADE

24) AVOID INCREASING YOUR TRADING AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF SUCCESS OR A PERIOD OF PROFITABLE TRADES

25) DONT GUESS WHEN THE MARKET IS TOP.  LET THE MARKET PROVE IT IS TOP. DONT GUESS WHEN THE MARKET IS BOTTOM. LET THE MARKET PROVE IT IS BOTTOM. BY FOLLOWING DEFINITE RULES, YOU CAN DO THIS

26) DONT FOLLOW ANOTHER MANS ADVISE UNLESS YOU KNOW THAT HE KNOWS MORE THAN YOU DO

27) REDUCE TRADING AFTER FIRST LOSS; NEVER INCREASE

28) AVOID GETTING IN WRONG AND OUT WRONG; GETTING IN RIGHT AND OUT WRONG; THIS IS MAKING DOUBLE MISTAKES

A Good Trader / Job Of A Trader

W. D. Gann's "Law Of Vibration"

My study of technical analysis began with taking the charting class at the CME taught by Ken Shaleen.  I learned that technical analysis is more art than science, so, I made the decision to form my own opinion of technical market analysis.  I began keeping my own charts by hand and either purchasing or checking out books from the library at the CME and CBOT.  Books by authors such as: Edwards & McGee, Elliot, Wychoff, Wilder, Gann, Skalrew, Ross,Hill, and others.  After keeping many charts and book study the core of my analysis is based on Gann, Hill, Elliot, Fibonacci, and Moving Average techniques.  I am a firm believer in the K.I.S.S. Principle (Keep It Simple Stupid) as I feel that with the many ways to look at the market, simple is best.  You don't have signals in conflict when pulling the trigger on a trade.  You see the trade, you make the trade. And use STOPS.  Let me repeat, ALWAYS USE STOPS.

Gann, however became a major focus in my analysis, his fan lines and percent retrace levels are an important part of how I pick action levels in the marketplace.  There are other aspects of Gann's techniques and teachings that are obscure and confusing to many of his students.  Gann Squares, Hexagons, and Astrology was too complicated and time consuming at the time to be used in my analysis of the markets.

I then came upon the above statements which changed the way I look at Gann's analysis of the marketplace.

Advanced KVE Trendlines P/L

My Trading Philosophy (Part One)

I'm  a student of John R. Hill and his two works

Stock & Commodity Trend Trading by Advanced Technical Analysis

and

Scientific Interpretation of Bar Charts

I've incorporated some of his ideas as my own.

I'm a firm believer that the composite opinion of the market is reflected by it's market action.

Timing is the essential ingredient.

Proper chart interpretation will reveal all the fundamentals that one needs to know.

A chart represents all the bulls and bears in a given market.

A technical analyst can cover all the active commodities/stocks.  This is not possible if one is a fundamentalist.  There are simply too many variables, some of which will be in conflict.

It is a wise man who knows which facts are important and which that are irrelevant.

A fundamentalist can be knowledgeable  and make money, but, is limited to 2-3 commodities or only several related sectors of stocks.

All stock or commodity markets behave in a similar fashion because you are dealing with its human emotions   --  fear & greed

Accumulated for a move up -- distributed for a move down both have somewhat similar characteristics.

The more that one studies commodity or stock price movements, the more they seem to defy analysis.

Many skilled mathematicians have attempted to reduce these movements into an exact science.

They are doomed to failure from the start, as human emotions are not an exact science.

There are various characteristics and repetitive sequences in the interplay of the underlying economic forces which disclose principles and methods for orderly buying and selling in harmony with these basic influences.

There are no life in the charts and it does not represent living psychology.

Life comes into them when past market action is used to project future course of price movement.

Charts are like a road map.  They are more than just history.  They depict the actions, emotions, and ideas of mass speculation.

Psychology of the mass mind. 

Man's mind cannot be reduced to an exact science.

Speculation is anticipation.  Market action discounts coming events before they happen.  The function of price is to integrate the supply/demand relationships.

Since the beginning of time, man has largely been controlled by the emotions of fear and greed.  When a  student of market action allows these emotions to influence his market response, one loses more opportunities in the market.  Must at all times resist those two emotions.  Confidence and Courage are required to overcome Fear and Greed.  Courage is inborn.  Confidence is gained by study, study, and more study.

Closing price is the most important price of the day.  It represents the final sentiment between the Bulls and Bears at the end of each trading day.

In the summer of 1979 I transferred to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where I worked as a out-trade clerk/keypuncher/afternoon settlements clerk.  While there I was watching the technical analyst for the partners on the trading floor update his chartbook that he kept for them.  I asked him the difference between a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst. He said "a fundamental analyst can only be proficient analyzing a group of two or three sectors of a commodity or stock sector,but, as a technical analyst you can analyze them all.  I knew I was going to be a technical analyst.

Trading Chaos With Advanced KVE Trendlines

Trading Chaos With Advanced KVE Trendlines is the end result of over 30 years of study of technical analysis of the stock and commodity markets.  My love of the marketplace began in March of 1978 when I first stepped on the Chicago Board of Trade floor.  The people shouting, pushing, and waving at each other was the most confusing thing ever seen for a Southern Illinois farm boy,but, after learning what they were all doing and the impact they had on the prices of the products grown on our family farm I was hooked.